BlackjackInstitute.com

[Sonny]

Using a progression system can be great for cover. Most casino employees know that progression systems eventually turn small losers into big losers so they will welcome you with open arms and wonderful comps if you fit that profile. You can also get away with great bet spreads if they think you are a typical player.

However, the cost of progression systems can be pretty hefty. As you mentioned, it is a bit safer to use them in positive counts because you have an advantage. However, it is the variance that is going to hurt you the most. If you are changing your bets using a progression system instead of betting proportionally then you will usually be betting too small or too large. The small bets will lower your EV while the big bets will increase your variance. Smaller EV + Bigger Variance = Bigger ROR. It also means a bigger N0, so you’ll be waiting longer to approach your long run expectations.

However, one thing from your original post caught my attention:

> For another example of what I mean, like what I said in my last post
> about PRETENDING to be a neg progger by betting 5-10-20-40-80 for a
> while when you are funded for and planning to play $100-minumum
> base unit card counting…

I really like that idea. During negative/neutral counts you are playing a progression system instead of your minimum bet. In this case it works because your average progression bet will be much lower than your $100 minimum bet. That means you are betting less money in bad situations, which is good. It also gets the pit used to seeing you spreading your bets wildly. Normally a $100 bet from a guy who was betting $5 a few hands ago will trigger some suspicion, but if they know that you are using a wild progression system then they will give you much more slack when they see you betting big. “That crazy guy must be on another losing streak!” That can help lay the groundwork for your bigger bets in positive counts. When they see you suddenly betting $500-$1,000 per hand they will start to drool because you will look like you’ve lost control. Now you can start betting based on the count during positive situations. Since you aren’t using the progression system anymore you can act like you gave up on it and are just betting uncontrollably and “steaming” to get your money back. I like that idea a lot.

The main problem is that the count will occasionally get high while you are at the bottom of your progression system. You will have to suddenly jump from $5 to $100 when the count turns positive. If you are already known to the pit crew as a progression player then you can get away with stuff like that but you may have to lay down a little cover before you start counting.

-Sonny-
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It's not the size of your bankroll, it's how you leverage it!

[JohnCC]

phydeaux, Sonny, et al...

Thanks for replies, that's what I was looking for.

See, I'm not really a huge number-cruncher guy as far as figuring out actual advantage, risk, etc in a strategy variant like this. It just SEEMED to me like there was something useful here, but what I'd like is for the probability analysis guys (like you) to explain *why* it's useful/valuable etc.

Of course doing something like this does add a complication and one more thing to keep in your head while playing, counting, chatting with the waitress, etc... you have to remember what your last bet was so you know how much to "double up" to after you lose, etc. I've found that making that stack of chips 5-10-20-40 etc helps in that regard too, in addition to putting 'em out there front and center for the pit crew and surveillance cams to see.

Anyone else with more ideas or detail analysis on this? Maybe something to add to mitigate the variation and RoR problem, pointed out?

-JCC

[JohnCC]

Hey all, Sonny, Phy, etc...

I have not been here for a while and just noticed some more recent "negative progression" or Martingale threads on the board, so figured I'd BUMP this related topic of mine back up, in hope of any more input or responses on this approach.

BTW I've been using this lately to good effect playing in my home town (but not been back to Vegas since the backoff incident last fall). I've managed to convince most of the pit crew who recognize me that I'm a crazy-ass neg prog Martingaler, while actually I'm counting. Heh.

-JC